Rolex never shouts about which watches it is discontinuing, but collectors enjoy the sport of following rumors of what will drop out of the catalog, and speculators have been known to bet big money on the gossip because watches that are no longer being made typically rise in value.
Those speculators could be sitting on significant losses right now if they mistimed their investment because prices for most watches that Rolex discontinued at the end of March have been tanking.
Rolex Oyster Perpetuals, which launched in September, 2020, in a range of dial colors and sizes, have risen to eye-watering levels through 2021, with many commanding prices of up to eight-times their retail value at authorised dealers.
Those rising prices accelerated as rumors started swirling that several dial colors and sizes would be axed by Rolex.
For example, the 41mm powder blue Oyster Perpetual was being traded for €32,500 at the start of 2022 (retail price €5,700), but the price rocketed by 50% to €48,000 by the time of Watches & Wonders at the end of March, according to data shared exclusively to WATCHPRO by Swiss-based secondary market specialist CHRONEXT.
The 36mm model of the same power blue Oyster Perpetual shot up even faster in the first quarter from €22,000 to €45,000, CHRONEXT reports. The watch had a retail price of €5,400.
There is an old stock market traders’ adage that you should buy the rumor and sell the news, which may explain why prices for these Oyster Perpetuals and others peaked at Watches and Wonders, the point of rumored removals from the Rolex catalog were confirmed, and the precise moment they started to fall.
The 41mm power blue piece dropped by 25% from the end of March to June to trade at €36,000.
The same dial color for the 36mm model has seen one of the sharpest drops since March, down 48% from €45,000 to €23,500.
Only the 36mm Oyster Perpetual with a pale pink dial tanked by more from a peak of €34,000 in March to €16,000 in June, CHRONEXT says. That is a 53% fall in just three months.
Other discontinued watches saw less modest spikes in the first quarter, and shallower declines since including yellow and coral versions of the Oyster Perpetual in 41mm and 36mm sizes.
Speculation about Rolex Sea-Dweller models being nixed drove secondary market prices up slightly from around €20,000 to €21,500 in the first quarter and they have since declined to €18,500.
The Rolex Air-King has lost value on the secondary market from a peak in 2021 of €15,800 to €12,500 today.
CHRONEXT supplied data for this article for am exclusive Special Report into the Secondary Market that appears in the July edition of WATCHPRO and will be shared online this week.
