It feels like a sluggish summer. Out of office replies remind me that the Swiss recalibrate their work-life balance at this time of year with a few weeks of well-earned rest.
Most of the world tends to squeeze vacation time into any window that work allows, but the fixed rhythm of the Swiss calendar is something to be admired.
Sales are sluggish.
We know this from Swiss watch export figures and from financial reporting from LVMH, Swatch Group and LVMH.
Rolex, Patek Philippe, Audemars Piguet and Richard Mille are privateers with no obligation to publish accounts.
Tellingly, these are the brands for which demand is holding up best. In fact, it is as strong as ever.
For the first half of the year, Swiss watch exports dropped year-on-year by around 3%, far better than the double-digit falls reported by the groups and suggesting that the private brands are gobbling up market share.
In a tight market, a larger share in the hands of fewer competitors casts an oversize shadow over the industry because there are far more losers than winners.
Out of the top 50 Swiss watchmakers, there is very chance that sales and profits are down for 40 of them. That’s a lot of glum faces.
You have to get out to retailers to realise that business is still incredibly good.
Family-owned independents have survived the global financial meltdown, wars, depressions and the fallout from Ponzi scheme implosions.
Sure, those without Rolex or Patek Philippe are having to work a whole lot harder and smarter to keep sales rolling, but there are still anniversaries, weddings, graduations, promotions, bonuses and birthdays in every family, and watches from every price point ready to be part of each celebration.
People say it feels a lot like 2019, the year before the pandemic. But the watch industry will be worth a great deal more than that this year, partly because prices have risen so much, but also because there are so many more people who bought their first fine watch in the wake of lock downs, and are now eager for a second, third or fourth.
The second half of this year will likely be similar or slightly up on last year, which might make watchmakers feel slightly better because a positive number is always better than a negative, but they must not assume the market will bounce back on its own.
We need something new and exciting to get us energised and chattering, and I hope the Swiss have something spectacular planned when they return refreshed from their vacations.