Swiss watch exports to the United States leapt by 45% in July as manufacturers rushed to land as much stock as possible in the country before a new 39% tariff kicked-in.
The spike is the second this year. The first surge came at the time of President Trump’s first announcement of a 31% tariff on Swiss exports in April, which was later lowered to the 10% that US importers paid from April until August 7.
Although it has been a rollercoaster ride, the value of all Swiss watch exports to the United States from January until July has risen by 24%, according to fresh figures from the Federation of the Swiss Watch Industry.
Watchmakers told me last week that brands had been straining every sinew — including airlifts of product using private jets — to beat the August 7 deadline after being given just one week’s when the new tariff rate was announced on August 1, Switzerland’s National Day.
Those airlifts will impact Swiss watch export figures to the USA in August, although the data will be difficult to interpret since I have also been told that shipments paused after August 7 for most watchmakers.
Brands are now hoping negotiations between Swiss and US officials can bring down the 39% tariff rate to the European Union’s headline rate of 15% or the 10% that the UK secured, but there has been no progress reported in the past week.
Swiss watch exports to the United States total CHF 3.11 billion for the first seven months of the year, a 24.1% rise.
This equates to additional stock in the country, compared to the same period in 2024, worth CHF 600 million.
In 2024, the monthly average for Swiss watch exports to the USA was CHF 364 million.
Taken together, the data suggests America had around seven weeks’ worth of additional stock in the country at the end of July.
Stock levels for the fastest-selling waiting list brands — Rolex, Audemars Piguet, Patek Philippe and Richard Mille — are much tighter than for brands where supply typically exceeds supply.
Swatch Group’s CEO Nick Hayek said earlier this month that the business, home to Omega, Longines, Tissot, Blancpain, Breguet and Swatch, has around six months’ worth of stock in America.
For all manufacturers, the mission earlier this month was to add to a buffer of stock before the new tariff hit at midnight on August 7, but that additional stock will be burned through quickly if sales are maintained or rise before expected price increases hit.
Right now, retailers are selling watches that were imported at the lower tariff rates.
This has allowed them to put off price rises that will be needed to protect profit margins when watches are hit with the 39% tariff.
WatchPro has been tracking prices for a basket of watches from leading brands since before the 39% tariff rate was announced.
Almost one month on, there appear to have been no price rises for Rolex, Patek Philippe, Cartier, Breitling, IWC, Omega, TAG Heuer, Tissot and Audemars Piguet across a sample of around 40 references.
September 1 is a date often used by brands to adjust their prices, so retailers are rushing to bring forward sales for clients that can be persuaded to buy now rather than risk higher prices later.
There have been price rises by some direct to consumer brands.
The United States is the only major market that has delivered growth for Swiss watchmakers since the start of 2025.
Mainland China has continued its relentless decline since the end of the 2010s, and has recorded an additional drop in the value of Swiss watch imports of 17% so far this year. Hong Kong is down by 11%.
The two markets, which once ranked one and two as the largest markets for Swiss watchmakers, are now placed third and fourth behind the United States and Japan.
The UK has been a notably stable market, with Swiss watch exports for the year-to-July down by a mere 0.4%.
Thanks to the United States, the total value of Swiss watch exports for the first seven months of the year rose by 1%.