Author: Ken Kessler
In the rarely confrontational world of watch journalism, one is loath to challenge a colleague’s opinions.
Perhaps the most heated that arguments might become are those about quartz versus mechanical watches, or debates about Rolex’s and Patek Philippe’s supply situations and clientele requirements but that’s about as far as it goes.
While we are entitled to our own opinions, a recent feature by fellow WatchPro columnist Robin Swithinbank had me scratching my head.
For me, his satirical “Manifesto for the Great United State of Watchmaking” (WatchPro December 2024 and online) for the salvation of the watch industry defied logic, common sense and reality.
While I was driven, in my hastily reactive state, to supply a comment for the website, further reflection has inspired me to go into greater detail as to why I must refute every one of his five points.
In his calling for a global solution to what he refers to as “the Great United State of Watchmaking”, I think his diagnosis and prescription for the state of the industry is wrong.
Starting with his first suggestion: “Make More Watches”.
I was staggered by proposing that for a market, already saturated, should want more.
I won’t name any of the brands, but I have been informed by more than one source of stock gathering dust, and of independents sitting on an entire year’s production.
My solution? Cut production – don’t increase it.
The only large-scale brands that might even entertain that are the three or four with waiting lists, namely Rolex, Patek Philippe, Richard Mille and Audemars Piguet.
As for the teensy-weensy independents with vast waiting lists, they do not figure in the greater scheme of things.
Mr Swithinbank’s second bit of advice is “Make watches more affordable”.
As a codicil to the above, the saturation occurs at every price point.
Has he excluded Swatch, Casio, Timex, Bulova, Certina, Tissot, Hamilton, and Longines, along with a few hundred other brands with timepieces between $50 and $1,000?
Thirdly, Mr Swithinbank posits making watches “more accessible”.
On every level, from the proximity to bricks-and-mortar retailers to online vendors, and for access to independent information, the act of choosing and buying a watch has never been easier.
His worrying about the “intellectualizing” of watch coverage affects only watch nerds and collectors.
The rest of humanity couldn’t give a hoot about brand rivalries, who invented the chronograph or other distractions. For most civilians only two things matter: price and looks.
His next one floored me: “Make watches where people are” so that the industry is “not constrained by the physical limits of geography”.
What?!? Every industry has an epicenter and satellites, in some cases monopolies. You want Chianti? It’s 100 per cent Italian – not French, not Australian. Chinchilla? Peru, Bolivia and Chile own that. Cocaine? Columbia.
Step back, Robin: watches are made in Switzerland, Germany, the UK, the USA, France, Japan, Hong Kong, Russia and too many other territories to list.
We really don’t need to encourage a watch industry in Tierra del Fuego or Mauritius or Kamchatka to create a global industry.
As for making watches where they’re sold, shipping watches (value aside) is hardly as onerous or complex as the automobiles you cite, let alone fridges. Or drugs, for that matter.
Lastly, he advises the brands to “Make watches people want”.
He says this point in his manifesto is “blindingly simplistic” but he seems not to understand that no industry as sophisticated as the watch industry is producing stuff people don’t want.
Their market research is as cutting-edge as any, and – aside from the occasional turkey – they make remarkably few mistakes.
Mr Swithinbank expanded on the last point by stating that “only 15 million watches are shipped from Switzerland every year to satiate the appetites of those 8 billion people.”
It’s generous of him to embrace the entire world’s population, but as “Half of the global population lives on less than US $6.85 per person per day” according to the World Bank, wristwatches are hardly a priority, thus chopping his potential market down to 4 billion for starters.
Allow me to compare the watch business with two others, one hugely successful in the extreme luxury sector and the other, which embraces price points from affordable to insane, but which is dying.
This will illustrate my Two-Point Manifesto, which will ensure the future of the watch industry.
As for the former, ask yourself why is the luxury car industry healthy (Aston Martin and Jaguar notwithstanding)?
Because it’s shared by fewer than 20 manufacturers. Leaving aside a few oddities which make maybe a half-dozen cars a year, the supercar market belongs to Ferrari, Lamborghini, Maserati, Porsche, Bugatti and a few others. Luxury saloons? Bentley, Rolls-Royce, Mercedes-Benz/Maybach, BMW, Audi, and maybe Cadillac. That’s it. Nearly all are extremely healthy, and the consumer isn’t overwhelmed by too much choice.
As for the other industry, the consumer audio business has killed itself, and not just because millennials and beyond mainly listen to their phones via earbuds.
There are too many useless brands out there, creating and cutting out ever smaller slices of a shrinking pie.
At one point, and failing to read the writing on the wall, the UK alone had over 100 loudspeaker manufacturers.
I have watched that industry all but die, succumbing to a perfect storm of a crowded market, a shrinking customer base, the onslaught of digital (doing what quartz almost did to the watch industry) and other ills.
It is said that in Switzerland alone there are over 600 watch brands, and I stopped counting all of the trivial “micro-brands” merely housing Miyota movements in generic cases attached to and supported by spurious marketing stories.
So here is my Two-Point Manifesto:
First, stop encouraging new brands at the high-end: there are only so many collectors in Singapore or Thailand or Moscow willing or able to buy a new tourbillon every week.
Second: Don’t encourage micro-brands, however affordable, cool or cutesy. We don’t need any more of either.
Why this blunt approach? If 400 watch companies shut down overnight, there would still be 100 too many.
As the legendary speaker designer Gilbert Briggs said, “The buyer confused buys nothing.” Otherwise, might I suggest making ready a black armband for much of the watch business?