Rolex never shouts about which watches it is discontinuing, but collectors enjoy the sport of following rumors of what will drop out of the catalog, and speculators have been known to bet big money on the gossip because watches that are no longer being made typically rise in value.
Those speculators could be sitting on significant losses right now if they mistimed their investment because prices for most watches that Rolex discontinued at the end of March have been tanking.
Rolex Oyster Perpetuals, which launched in September, 2020, in a range of dial colors and sizes, have risen to eye-watering levels through 2021, with many commanding prices of up to eight-times their retail value at authorised dealers.
Those rising prices accelerated as rumors started swirling that several dial colors and sizes would be axed by Rolex.
For example, the 41mm powder blue Oyster Perpetual was being traded for €32,500 at the start of 2022 (retail price €5,700), but the price rocketed by 50% to €48,000 by the time of Watches & Wonders at the end of March, according to data shared exclusively to WATCHPRO by Swiss-based secondary market specialist CHRONEXT.
The 36mm model of the same power blue Oyster Perpetual shot up even faster in the first quarter from €22,000 to €45,000, CHRONEXT reports. The watch had a retail price of €5,400.
There is an old stock market traders’ adage that you should buy the rumor and sell the news, which may explain why prices for these Oyster Perpetuals and others peaked at Watches and Wonders, the point of rumored removals from the Rolex catalog were confirmed, and the precise moment they started to fall.
The 41mm power blue piece dropped by 25% from the end of March to June to trade at €36,000.
The same dial color for the 36mm model has seen one of the sharpest drops since March, down 48% from €45,000 to €23,500.
Only the 36mm Oyster Perpetual with a pale pink dial tanked by more from a peak of €34,000 in March to €16,000 in June, CHRONEXT says. That is a 53% fall in just three months.
Other discontinued watches saw less modest spikes in the first quarter, and shallower declines since including yellow and coral versions of the Oyster Perpetual in 41mm and 36mm sizes.
Speculation about Rolex Sea-Dweller models being nixed drove secondary market prices up slightly from around €20,000 to €21,500 in the first quarter and they have since declined to €18,500.
The Rolex Air-King has lost value on the secondary market from a peak in 2021 of €15,800 to €12,500 today.
CHRONEXT supplied data for this article for am exclusive Special Report into the Secondary Market that appears in the July edition of WATCHPRO and will be shared online this week.
I wouldn’t call this a broad crash. Some less desired pieces are correcting more than others. But there’s still a significant gap over retail. To the folks buying these pieces, a $1,500 savings at $20,000 is not necessarily a humungous savings, albeit welcomed. Let’s revisit in 3-6 months and see where we land (if it’s a soft-landing like Jerome Powell asserts) or a bitcoin-like landing.
Why Chrono24 price still so high, were they trying their luck or just not update price range with current market? Chrono24 dodgy app!
This is a very interesting topic. What I am told is that dealers have stopped B2B trading between themselves, or at least they are not seeing these trades go public on Chrono214. They are keeping their advertised prices artificially high on the site but do not expect anything to sell at those prices.
The correction is for sure the steepest for the hottest watches: Royal Oak, Nautilus 5711, Daytona, but the trend is the same for every watch selling over retail. There was a steep rise in the six months to the end of March, and almost everything has been falling since then. I agree the hot watches are still way over retail still, and roughly the same price as at the start of the year, but they are only heading in one direction right now.
Being a collector since 1975 at 12 years old, I am totally happy with prices crashing to 2015 levels.
The organized crime manipulating with collusion of AD’s for purposes of money laundering and transferring under the radar has been disgusting and a detriment to long term sustainability of building a strong customer base. I know of many enthusiasts that ditched their mechanicals for an Apple during the past few years.
On the other side silliness driven by Influencers of IG platform drive vanity to vulgarity.
2015 I bought a Nautilus as a walk-in from a boutique. I was holding my younger sons hand and the memory of it I will always cherish. Now days it is more akin to abuse at the hand of drug pushers.
In the long run once we are back to sensibility then strong customer base is created one that enjoys the watch as an accessory to be cherished , and also the related crime spree we have witnessed in the past few years will also diminish. Then we can wear our watches and enjoy them without fear of attack and theft.
Biggest Criminals running the market are RM, Rolex, PP and alate to the game is AP and VC.
Though one benefit of this for me has been that I started to look for other brands that did not give in to the temptation or tried to find ones that I did not know before, Grand Seiko as an examplenisnone which I now enjoy since 2017 with great respect and admiration.
Those charts are so hard to read “Data courtesy of CHRONEXT”
Green text on a Green background?
WTF!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!