New year is a moment for reflection, resolutions and — at least for editors — predictions of what the coming 12 months will bring.
First, my reflections on 2024, which is rapidly disappearing in our rear view mirrors, and many will be glad to see the back of it.
Not me. I see last year as an important reminder that markets fall as well as rise, and that inspiring customers to buy watches requires exquisitely designed timepieces, expertly made by man or machine, and sold with passion through outstanding stores.
I get to see this in action every day so it comes as little surprise that, despite the economic headwinds of the past 18 months, amazing watches are still selling in almost record numbers.
2023 was an all-time high for the Swiss watch industry. 2024 will be less than 3% down. Of course, the biggest brands are gaining market share, and others have been struggling, but overall the watch business remains in good health.
My resolution for this new year is to spend less time chained to my desk.
I abhor working from home, so getting out of the office means getting out to meet amazing characters and being shown incredible timepieces by the people that make them or sell them.
Spending time with these people is both vital to my job and also an enormous joy.
I am much more of a people person than a product guy and my passion for timepieces is as much about human stories behind them as it is about their incredible engineering and artistry.
Which brings me to my predictions for 2025.
On the business front, I expect this to be another “normal” year when watches worth close to $70 billion — including new and pre-owned — will be sold.
However, the concentration of spending on the biggest brands: Rolex, Cartier, Omega and Audemars Piguet, will make life tougher for mid-ranking marques and we may see some of them acquired or disappear.
This would be healthy Darwinism in action, and I welcome it.
The fashion for smaller men’s watches will continue, but should not be over-stated. Sure, celebrities are fueling excitement in slimmer, dressier watches from the 1970s, but this is still a niche market.
The trend for more discreet wristwear is affecting the oversized watch market the most.
Chunky sports watches at 45mm or more diameters were commonplace five years ago, now, to me at least, they look ugly.
The sweet spot, as watch-loving veterans remind me, is 39mm. Expect to see a lot of watches launching this year in the 36-39mm range.
Finally, expect to see TAG Heuer start to reclaim market share it has lost recently to Breitling.
Its partnership with Formula 1 is a game-changer that will raise its profile and trigger positive associations with a billion or more motor racing fans.
Retailers will love the chance to take customers to race weekends, which is certain to boost sales, particularly in the Americas where the USA has three races in the 2025-26 calendar, while Mexico, Canada and Brazil have one each.
Not so much a prediction purely for 2025, but I believe TAG Heuer will be challenging Omega, if not quite Rolex, for success with its sports watches in the coming year, particularly if it can build platform collections that might use the Monaco for PR purposes, but really deliver commercial transformation through the Carrera, Formula 1 and, to a lesser extent, Autavia and Connected families.
It’s tempting to say that this is the sort of publicity that money cannot buy, but then I remind myself, parent group LVMH is paying $150 million per year for the privilege.