The National Retail Federation has predicted a successful remainder of 2024 for the US economy.
Its chief economist, Jack Kleinhenz, said that he’s optimistic for the rest of the year, despite expectations for slower growth of both gross domestic product and retail sales.
“No one can accurately forecast what surprises the next year might hold, but the foundation of the economy is relatively sturdy and still on a sustainable path,” Kleinhenz said, adding that the continuing recovery remains “highly reliant” on consumer spending. “Barring unexpected shocks, it should continue growing in 2024, although not spectacularly.”
“No one could have imagined when the COVID-19 recession ended in April 2020 that we would have experienced such a resilient expansion that is now headed toward its fifth year,” he said.
GDP is expected to grow about 2.3% year on year, slower than 2023’s 2.5% but still strong, while consumer spending is expected to be up about 2%, which compares with 2.3% last year.
“Consumers’ behavior and spending power are tied to their financial health, and the consumer sector looks good at the moment,” Kleinhenz said.