In recent years, buying any Rolex watch from an authorised dealer was like being handed a cheque to the bearer along with the timepiece.
With the possible exception of the now-discontinued Cellini, every Rolex made for men was worth more on the secondary market than its retail value.
Even today, after three years of price declines since the bubble burst in 2022, the average Rolex bought from an AD can be resold for +15% more, according to a new report by Morgan Stanley and Watcharts.
But averages conceal important details, and it is no longer the case that every Rolex comes with an potential instant profit.
Rolex’s average value retention (the percentage difference between retail prices and market prices) of +15% is pulled-up its GMT-Master collection, which has VR of +40% and the Daytona’s VR of 39%.
Oyster Perpetuals and Sky-Dwellers are the next best bets with average VRs of +31% and +20%.
In each case, the calculations are based on averages across collections with weightings for references produced in the highest volumes.
Eight out of 13 tracked collections by Rolex have positive VR, and five are now in negative territory: Day-Date (-2%), Yacht-Master (-4%), Explorer (-5%), the new 1908 dress watch collection (-8%) and Sea-Dweller (-15%).
Rolex Explorer II and Air-King collections are on the bubble, at +4% VR, but could easily slip into negative territory as retail prices look certain to rise and market prices are likely to keep falling.
It is also worth noting that Rolex Certified Pre-Owned retailers and unofficial traders will offer considerably less for every watch because they need to create a resale margin.
Of course, watches should be loved and passed down to the next generation, but it goes against human nature to ignore the intrinsic and lasting value of any treasured item.
Until the beginning of this year, Patek Philippe watches retained the value better than Rolexes, but the situation has reversed now, with the Crown’s average VR of +15% beating the Patek portfolio’s average of +13%.
Differences in value retention for each of Patek Philippe’s collections is much more extreme than with Rolex.
Morgan Stanley’s snapshot of the market, taken on April 1, shows the new Patek Philippe Cubitus with a VR of +115%, although dealers like Boston’s European Watch Company have said secondary market prices have been falling faster than for any comparable new watch collection.
Aquanaut’s VR is +76%, almost unchanged for the past year, which makes it an outlier, and the Nautilus collection has VR of +59%.
But the average VR for Calatravas or Complications is -26%. Save these for your grandchildren.
Completing the three big beasts of the secondary market, Audemars Piguet’s value retention across its portfolio is down to just +5.3%, but it is a tale of one collection: the Royal Oak, which still has VR of 30%, a figure that has fallen by 7% over the past year.
More bulky Offshore models average -17% VR and the CODE 11.59 collection, which appears to be gaining traction in the primary market, has a chastening VR of -29%.